Trying to Make Sense of the Final Chaotic Moments at NHC15

We may never know the truth of what transpired in the final moments leading up to the 9th Race at Santa Anita, which was the final mandatory race of NHC15.  It certainly opened up the possibility of contest manipulation or at the very least hedging, whichever way you view such a strategy.  The difference between the winner's share and runner-up's was $550,000 ($750k to the winner, 200k to runner-up)  The NTRA opened up this possibility by exposing players selections with 1 minute to post while pari-mutuel pools were still open.  Here is what we know at this point

• Heading into the last race long time leader Jose Arias held a slight edge on Nick Alpino by $4.10, Tony Brice by $26.60, and Mike Piccola by $27.40
• Here are the selections for the final mandatory race for the Top 4

1. Arias (8)
2. Alpino (2)
3. Brice (1)
4. Piccola (7) 
   

• Once the picks were displayed to the gallery, including final table participants, Tony Brice's selection of the 1 Fit to Rule, out of the Doug O'Neill barn, took two big hits at the window dropping him from 8-1 all the way down to 6-1 which no one watching the simulcast feed knew until after they crossed the wire.  When Fit to Rule finished on top and his odds were displayed at 6-1 this assured Arias of the NHC15 Title.  Brice's rally came up $1.20 short but by the way he was celebrating when they crossed the wire there is a good chance he thought he pulled the upset, at the would be odds of 8-1.
• There was a large discrepancy in the win/place pool on this horse as it paid $15.60 to win and a whopping $9.80 to place.  That place price is more consistent with an 8-1 winner and suggested about 10k was added to the win pool on this horse in the final minute 
• The current format certainly opened up the possibility of hedging and contest manipulation as documented by well respected handicapper, contest player, and horseplayers reality star, Christian Hellmers tweet following the days events

1.    Christian Hellmers ‏@RaworDie 1 day

Nhc format must keep choices hidden nxt yr to prevnt finalists from phoning in a 10k bet to alter odds of opponents. @DRFSteven_Crist @NTRA

• Did Hellmers know something?  He later said he was referring to what could happen in future years but my perception of Christian is he is a smart, stand up guy who wouldn't specifically out somebody.  It was interesting this tweet was sent out an hour after congratulating Jose Arias on the title.  What did Christian possibly learn in the 60 minutes following the congratulatory tweet?
• For industry professionals such as Mike Watchmaker to say today "This rumor is ridiculous and couldn't happen" shows how far behind the times some of our industry professionals are.  Let me remind everyone of a few things
• There were 60 minutes between the 3rd and 4th mandatory race, giving Arias and his following plenty of time to draft a strategy ,along with other participants to do the same.  I know a few of Arias' contest colleages and to say they couldn't make this happen would be insulting them.  They are far sharper than this and have the financial backing to make it reality within a matter of seconds or the push of a button.  In fact, some of his closest contest friends, whom I won't name here, are equipped at contests with laptops watching pools/odds and are what you would consider math guru's/pool experts.
• Peter T. Fornatale (@loomsboldy) who covered the NHC Tour and Championship all year long for DRF.com promises to shed some light on this very subject later in the week

By the way, absolutely no truth to the rumor about contest manipulation at #NHC15 I'll break it all down later this weekPeter T. Fornatale ‏@loomsboldly

• I hope Fornatale is able to supply us with real facts as to where these 2 big wagers came from and not simply speculation or quotes from the Arias camp.  If you interview Arias, he isn't going to say "With the 60 minute break the NHC supplied us between races 3 & 4, a group of of my contest friends and I started talking strategy.  They told me to concentrate on picking winners, and they'd keep an eye on the pool totals.  We knew with the position I was in, that I had a good chunk of change to hedge with.  They asked me what I was comfortable with and I told them 20k. The rest is history, and it couldn't have worked out any better." 
• Again, I'm not saying this is how it unfolded but we'd never know if it were, and to say it couldn't is being ignorant (AKA Watchmaker).  I did find it interesting that Arias even admitted mid race he learned the horse went from 8-1 to 6-1 (Again they were watching the pools on the computer), and I find it very fascinating they were so focused on this particular horse.  Logic tells me, in that position if you just get your horse to win or run second, you win the contest, so why be so concerned about others selections?
• There is speculation that such a large wager right before post time could have come in from the Doug O'Neill camp as they do have a reputation of being blue collar gamblers who aren't afraid to place a wager or two.

• I reached out to O'Neill via twitter about this very subject, but have yet to receive a response

JimmyQ ‏@JimmyQVegas 8 hrs

@DougONeill1 Congrats on the Fit to Rule win! Can you confirm or deny if someone associated with the horse made a large late Win wager? 6-1

• Regardless of what may or may not have unfolded in the final minutes, Jose Arias was a very deserving winner as he took them gate to wire and proved to be the smartest man in the room and the NHC15 Champion.

JimmyQVegas
@JimmyQVegas